From VIX exuberance to prudent fear

Exuberant is long gone

The crowd got "hooked" on exuberant VIX during most of 2023. This has now reversed big time, and VIX is showing real fear. Note the "inverted" gap between SPX vs the VIX inv.

Source: Refinitiv

No more VIX chill

VIX beta to SPX has surged lately, trading in the 99%tile.

Source: Nomura

SPX - the chart that matters

SPX continues trading inside the perfect short term trend channel, but the big trend line is approaching. The 50 crossed the 100 day some sessions ago, but note the 200 day moving average is here. 4250 is the make or break level to watch.

Source: Refinitiv

Shorting mania

Shorting US single stocks is becoming rather "popular"...

Source: GS

Fading tech

Info tech is the most net sold sector so far in October according to GS prime book.

Source: GS PB

Risky out of vougue

The 3-month return for "risky factors" (that is volatility, low profitability) is back near recent lows.

Source: JPM PI

Reminder: MSI has turned risk positive

Morgan Stanley's cross-asset team's Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI), which aggregates survey, positioning, volatility, and momentum data, turned positive a few days ago, exiting the neutral reading it has held since August 23, 2023.

Source: Morgan Stanley

The king of signals says buy

BofA's bull and bear indicator has continued moving lower and has started flashing the contrarian buy signal here. Track record is: "...median 3-month returns post buy signal imply = US stocks 5.4%, global stocks 7.6%". Dare to be contrarian here?

Source: BofA

Treasuries inflow mania

Longest streak of inflows into Treasuries since 2010...

Source: BofA

The obesity bull

We have seen these type of charts before...

Source: MS

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