Vol Has Reset… But The Macro Hasn’t

Vol has reset… but the macro hasn’t

Markets may look calm on the surface, but the underlying inflation picture is starting to stir again. Oil remains firm enough to keep pressure on rates, and after a brief reset, bond markets are beginning to show signs of reawakening.

So far, inflation expectations have stayed relatively contained, but that balance looks fragile. If rates start pushing higher again, the narrative can shift quickly from “temporary shock” to something more persistent.