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Warnings signs, but what if...

Warning signs

Bobby Molavi writes: "...new job openings are the lowest they’ve been since Apr 2021, with Layoffs the highest they’ve been since Dec 2020. We’re starting to see leading indicators of repricing of credit like subprime auto loans falling to around 2% of all auto loans from around 10% in 2018. We saw German industrial production fell more than expectations in March on the back of weakness in the Auto sector. Oil has had its 6th monthly loss in a row. US courts have just seen 57 ‘large’ insolvencies in Q1 for the busiest quarter since 2009".

Add to this Yellen's no option and things could be getting exciting again...

another "disturbing" gap

Source: Refinitiv

The sole buyer

Current data looks worse than prior “good pauses”

Still in love with soggy Euro(pe)

Source: Refinitiv

Dollar just needs a bit of VIX "love"

Source: Refinitiv

CTA's and oil

Source: GS

Systematics & dealers

What if...

Source: Refinitiv