Welcome To The Everything High. Nothing About This Is Normal

What matters in global macro right now?

One answer: almost everything is at a high. What could possibly go wrong?

US earnings growth is hitting levels normally reserved for post-recession rebounds, AI capex is going hyperbolic, tech margins are at records, EM earnings are surging and European data is surprising sharply to the upside. Then there are record crack spreads, rising gasoline prices, record Chinese gold holdings, Treasury yields near multi-year highs and equity vol control positioning at the 100th percentile.