Welcome to upside down
Upside down volatility
SPX and VIX spot tend to move with a negative correlation, but lately things have been rather extreme. GS derivatives team writes: " 10 day realized correlation is +0.61 (positive) … this is in sharp contrast to the average realized correlation over the past 30 years, which stands at -0.78 (negative)." This is not your normal vol environment.
Source: GS
The fed "delta"
SPX vs Fed's BS (rate of change) gap getting rather short term wide...
Source: Refinitiv
Giving up on the recession...just in time...
...for the recession. Soc Gen's Edwards: "Economists usually give up forecasting a recession immediately before it occurs".
Source: Soc Gen/Downunder daily
Bank lending crashing
Contracting US bank lending isn't getting much attention...but probably should.
Source: Soc Gen
Hikes vs cuts
The catch up...
Source: BofA
That Mega-cap Tech premium
Seven largest big tech stocks trade at a significant premium to the rest of the index.
Source: FactSet
Puking tech
Biggest outflow in tech over the past 10 weeks...but the crowd remains very long tech here.
Source: BofA
A softer inflow picture
Net flows into global equity funds turned negative in the week ending June 21 (-$5bn vs +$22bn in the previous week). Flows into DM and EM funds were negative on the whole. In G10, both the US and Western Europe saw net outflows
