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When Credit Stops Believing

The AI bill is coming due

The AI narrative had been remarkably simple: spend more, build faster, buy more GPUs. But trillion-dollar capex cycles aren't funded with optimism, they're funded with balance sheets. And the market that lends the money has started behaving very differently from the market buying the stocks. Debt investors don't get paid to dream. They get paid to worry, and lately they've been worrying a lot more about the companies financing the AI build-out.

Credit default swaps on the hyperscalers