When insane strength and supportive seasonals meet full positioning

It works, until it doesn't

US stocks are entering a strong 3-month seasonal period. And many quant studies show that when stocks have rallied like they have over the past few months - most of the time we are higher 6 months later. However, positioning and inflow indicators are very stretched and sentiment is too much hallelujah. We are long overdue for a 5% pullback. We need a breather.