The Wrap: Keep It Simple - Just Follow the 10-Year

Keep it simple...

...follow the 10 year, but the US outlook is murkier than many think. Hatzius’ (GS) call for a Dec-10 rate cut lines up with softer alternative labor data showing the economy may be losing momentum. The slowdown may be necessary: once tariffs fade, tax cuts arrive, and financial conditions ease further in 2026, the backdrop should turn far more market-friendly. Chart shows NDX vs US 10 year (inverted).