10 reasons to be bullish

The Market Ear Picture

The bounce could morph into a proper year-end melt-up

The base case is still that this bounce has some further to run. Positioning in general is close to an extreme, CTA and buyback buying could/will be significant, seasonals are supportive and there is also a general feeling that we started a "climbing a wall of worry" where equities ignore other asset classes and worsening macro and these situations have a tendency to run further. On top of everything we have also not really had that insane bear market rally yet in 2022. The summer run was more normal - bear market rallies can become violent. We are therefore holding on to our "bounce call" with the optionality that this could morph into at least a "Halloween hallelujah" rally and maybe even also a violent and absurd year-end melt-up.

Last time equities defied rates like this....