gcjohns1971

Comment Score 54333


Member since Monday Mar 3, 2014 - 9:40 PM

Recent Comments


gcjohns1971
May 28, 2024 2:33
Ukraine Confirms France Will Send Military Trainers To Its Soil

If you understand anything about monetary history, then you understand WW3 is a forgone conclusion.

As far back as the Phoenician and Babylonian Empires when the great Imperial fractionally-Reserved currencies approach collapse the nation's engage in war.  

The victors may or may nnotprovide a replacement numeraire or reserve currency, and the incumbent may or may not default and reform their currencies.

When there is no solid reserve currency, any seeming end to the war is just an interregnum followed by a resumption of war.

Britain's Pound Sterling was in default before 1907.   American agricultural products were sold in pound sterling in the London commodity markets.  But the markets were not able to deliver the Specie payments in time for the world's farmers to use them to purchase the inputs for the next season.

Ironically, it was the same bankers in arrears paying for commodities they had sold who then foreclosed on the farmers who were their creditors.  This caused the panic of 1907, which was papered over temporarily by JP Morgan. 

The Bank of England announced it was suspending Specie payment due to the prospect of war resulting from ArchDuke Ferdinand's assassination THREE DAYS BEFORE HE WAS ASSASSINATED in June of 1914...and when the US Fed Act had been passed only months before, but had not yet begun to operate, which it did in August 1914.

After WW1 Britain tried to return to its reserve currency status with convertibility.  It failed in 1934. WW2 shortly followed, and only truly ended with the assent of the US Dollar to Reserve Status.

Conversely, the the fall of the Dutch Gilder and Glorin reserve currencies were settled quickly when France conquered the Netherlands.  

The French Franc-a-pied then became the dominant reserve.  However, it too was bankrupt, leading to mass poverty in France, the French Revolution, and ultimately what ought to be understood as the first World War - the Napoleonic Wars.

Only upon Napoleon's defeat - far from certain at the time - did the Reserve status famously pass to the Pound Sterling.

There is no way to perpetually sustain a Ponzi.

A Ponzi is defined by the fact that it creates no wealth but only distributes it from the many newer investors to the few.  Ponzis therefore require successive logarithmicly larger generations of 'new' investors to remain solvent.

Debt-fiat is structurally a Ponzi.

Debt must logarithmically grow or collapse.

The US CURRENT Federal Debt will pass $100 Trillion in the next decade - or it will collapse into deflationary contagion and cease to exist.

So, history emphatically suggests WW3 will coincide with that event.

 

gcjohns1971
May 28, 2024 1:52
Everything You Need To Know As Trump Trial Heads To Verdict

From this article the assertion of fact that Trump sought to pay Daniel's to defraud an election appears to be flatly disproven.

Trump did not pay Daniels.  Cohen paid Daniels in exchange for an NDA apparently without any involvement from Trump.

Trump while in the Whitehouse reimbursed Cohen in aggregate for his services, including fraudulent services that Cohen said he did not perform, but charged Trump for, anyway in an apparent admission of theft.

How is it possible to execute an conspiracy to defraud an election AFTER the election?

You can't.  That's impossible.  Yet Trump's only involvement occurred after the election when he payed Cohen's bill which contained admitted inaccuracies and frauds intended to cause Trump to pay more than he owed...according to the Court Testimony.

And yet...without the election conspiracy...there is no crime in the categorization of business expenses, which Trumps comptroller, and not Trump himself, made.

This is a "Choose your own adventure" judicial expedition.   The prosecution throws dirt on the defendant. And each individual juror independently decides what are the charges and sentence.

This is not a judicial procedure or proceeding under the Laws of the United States.

But what would you expect from NY?  NY's only purpose to exist is financial and monetary fraud.

There is no rule of Law in NY.

NY gives 3d world sh!+holes a good name.  That is it's only purpose...to be visibly disfunctional in every conceivable way.

gcjohns1971
May 28, 2024 1:31
Fear Trump... Or Bust?

If you want to understand the recent pathologies of US politics, or those of the world generally, which specifically delves into sexually and socially abnormal behavior leading to low birth rates, and political violence, then read Calhoun's work on "Behavioral Sinks" or "Mouse Utopia".

Everything you read here as a Democrat pathology, and the unmentioned but existent Republican pathologies, is covered in detail.

Why should you do this?

Because you cannot solve a problem that you do not understand.

Calhoun's work will help you to understand.

You can get a brief summary from Wikipedia under the heading "Behavorial Sink".

Ask yourself if the pathologies he noted during the experiments are the same as the ones mentioned here, and plaguing our society in general.

gcjohns1971
May 28, 2024 12:35
Fear Trump... Or Bust?

Have no illusions that the number of voters' votes will decide the election.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:57
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

Lots of logical errors in your thought process.

Crude is energy, but not exclusively so.

Energy is energy.  And people use whatever is most efficient until it isn't.

There is no shortage of energy in the US.

Not even close.

There are 5 trillion barrels of oil equivalent energy sitting ON THE SURFACE in the Green River Shale Formation ALONE.  About 3.6T of them are classified as "Highly Recoverable".

All the crude in the world up to present is about 1.3 trillion barrels.

The survey was completed in 1969.

Extracting it requires a different process than conventional WTI light sweet crude refineries.

So, in 1970, came along the EPA to prevent anyone from building any new refineries.

I think your understanding of the game and the players is much less than you think.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:49
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

Silly.

Debt IS the Dollar.

It does not "Back" it.

You cannot "back" a check with a negative value.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:45
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

The problem with your logic is that you start it centuries too late.

Push things into bankruptcy to buy them cheap only works when you have means with which to purchase them.

When the French Reserve Currency Collapsed, you got a world War under Napoleon...until a new reserve currency existed with which to buy up the distressed assets, which was the Pound Sterling.

Until it collapsed in 1907, and was held together...barely...until 1914 when a World War came along.  And that War could not end (Hence WW2 was really just a continuation of WW1, until there was a NEW reserve currency...after 30 years of monetary chaos.

You need to zoom out to understand that the debt cycle you see is only an episode within a larger debt cycle.

World War...which few or none may survive, and which must continue until there is a new monetary Hegemon so that the same old families can restart under a new National Flag...

OR

Buy Gold, and cut the legs from under nationally-issued currencies.

This debt cycle is rooted in the ancient world...as are the families who promote it.

 

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:32
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

It is more accurate to say those behind the current monetary system caused the lefties.

But the point is moot inasmuch as they are tied at the hip.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:32
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

Except we've pumped more now than the previous peak of 1972.  So...uh...no.

Whatever they told you about oil was simply wrong.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:27
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

When all currency is debt you can NEVER pay the debt.

You can ONLY roll it into bigger debts.

OR

You can default.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:25
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

It is inherently deflationary for the reason that debt growth must accelerate or collapse into deflationary contagion.

What you are really saying is that the ruling class of financiers and government people, whose wealth is almost exclusively financial credit in nature, will decide to destroy their wealth in a bid to keep their privilege before debt expansion drives people out of the currency.

I am saying that they will not.  They will try to keep and increase their nominal wealth whilst telling themselves those they rob it from can be kept on their monetary Plantation irrespective of their wants and needs.  

They will tell themselves that right up to the point where everyone abandons their monetary Plantation. 

They cannot see what the population sees:  The only alternative is death.

And if faced with certain death from financialization or probable death from Plantation goons, they will risk the goons. 

Because they know the goons are paid with that same crap currency, face the same choice themselves, and there is no possibility of a future for the goons while the Ponzi remains.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:14
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

They lost the option of devaluation when Nixon closed the Gold Window.

To devalue you must devalue against a reserve asset.

But all the reserve assets but one are the same debts that create the currency, and which must be expanded in order to devalue (expand) the currency.

The only reserve asset they have which is not expanded in tandem with currency is Gold.

So.   

Gold Standard via devaluation against Gold.

Or bust.

Hence why I wrote that they have no option other than a return to Gold and dramatic monetary reform.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:09
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

What is the real value of debts that exceed the sum of all currency in the world?

From the instant the first interest payment is made, that is the real, and actual value of the debts...which is to say NEGATIVE.

A $1,000 debt @5% for 10 years creates $1,000, but requires $1,563 to retire.

As soon as the first interest payment is made there is less currency in existence than the total outstanding principal. 

Hence the real net value of the debt is NEGATIVE.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:05
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

Likely.

It is an octopus strategy.  Spray so much inky chaos into the water that an escape can be made.

But to where???

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 11:03
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

Actually, no.

The Chinese economy is founded on beating the US in a race to the bottom in order to undersell the US.

Turns out it is hard to translate that industrial production into domestic demand while Communists funnel all the wealth into real estate, and uneconomic infrastructure projects.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 10:59
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

And rich financiers.

And rich FedGov Cronies.

But inasmuch as this system punishes production leading to financialization, what their riches will buy will become less because less is economic to make.

If you had someone stealing 50%-75% of every transaction productive behavior could not pay for itself, and would stop.

And, in point of fact, that is exactly what you have.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 10:55
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

Ummm....

Billions were 1990s.

TRILLIONS.  Not Billions.

And if people are insane enough to stay on this standard, within 30 years you will have to learn what number is 1000 Trillions.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 10:43
CEO Of Russia’s Second-Largest Bank Warns: “US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis”

You need to know very little in order to verify Kostin's analysis.  In debt currency, the growth of aggregate debt is logarithmic, or the currency collapses. 

This is because all currency is created by debt lent into existence bearing an interest rate.  No money is created with which to pay the interest, hence interest payments consume a portion of the principal lent, leaving too little currency to retire the debt at maturity.  Instead the public is forced to borrow at interest to repay at interest, thusly necessitating logarithmic debt growth.

The growth for the period of 2009 to 2024 was 320%, and resulted in Treasury debt growth from about $9T to about $35T.

If you apply the same rate forward the debt MUST reach $100T BEFORE 2039.

But it CANNOT be the same rate and remain on the necessary logarithmic curve.  It MUST grow faster...or collapse in deflationary contagion.

So, does growing debt by $70+ TRILLION in the next 15 years seem sustainable to you????

If not, then Kostin is unarguably RIGHT.  And the only question is when it will happen, or if the FedGov will have the self discipline to establish a Gold Standard to prevent it, at a high enough price that the transition from FedNote to Statutory Dollar can be made.

Failing that, in 15 years there will be no dollars.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 1:33
NATO Chief Backs Calls For US Weapons To Strike Hard Inside Russia

While in theory it is generally both legal and moral to strike an attacker's military wherever they are located, and certainly when located on your own territory which they occupy, the problem is that both Kiev and DC, as well as all the NATO capitals, are corrupt asshats whose words and assertions cannot be trusted or taken at face value.

gcjohns1971
May 27, 2024 1:28
Biden Marketing Team To Create Trump Mega-Martyr With ‘Guilty’ Verdict Campaign Strategy

"It just should be a tragedy that an American president has been convicted of real crimes."

What crimes?

A payment and NDA to a porn star written by the president's lawyer, without his direct involvement, from the lawyers own money, which he then billed as "legal expenses" that didn't even happen during an election? But is somehow charged as election fraud? Except that is a misdemeanor which has already statutorily expired, but is somehow pursued as a non-expired felony?

NY might not care about the details.  But NY is a 3d world $h!+hole incapable of governing itself, and so corrupt at every level that it would make Capone blush.