The Next 10 Days Of Winter: The Worst In 40 Years Across The US
A meteorologist's main purpose: keep you alive, and marked safe.✅
There is nothing we can do to stop this epic week of weather, and believe me, I have been trying to find silver linings or rays of sunlight.
So, the best preparation is fresh, accurate, and expert information from trusted sources.
While every new weather model run (alphabet soup of acronyms) shows slight adjustments in who gets the most freezing rain (ice) and snowfall❄️ there is little doubt about the aftermath of the massive ice storm: hazardous cold like January 21, 1985 when the United States 🇺🇸 average low temperature sunk to 4°F.
Many of these record lows are still standing.
⚠️You should be prepared for extended power outages with subzero temperatures outdoors. Think about where you can go, what you can do, and who needs even more help to survive this week ahead. This is not hype or a joke.
Temperature Analysis January 21, 1985 | PRISM Oregon State
Let's dig in (or out) of this Winter Storm that is actually 2 waves of moisture that finally consolidate into a rather powerful Nor'easter.
If you're younger than 40 years old, then you may be experiencing the worst winter weather of your lifetime depending upon where you are over the next 10-14 days.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026
Plan for extended power outages with brutally cold temperatures for many days. pic.twitter.com/GYaXpU3A8Z
ECMWF 12z HRES Precipitation Type and Intensity
A massive "slug of moisture" will stream out of the subtropical Pacific and then the Gulf of Mexico to combine into an "atmospheric river". Normally that would be heavy rain and maybe snowfall where the air is below freezing.
Not this time -- we will have extremely cold Arctic air flooding southward: and the atmospheric river will go up and over the more dense cold air near the surface. When the warmer subtropical moisture falls through the : it turns to snow or freezing rain or sleet.
Total Snowfall Amounts (NOAA Blend of Models -- trust this b/c it includes the ECMWF or Euro flagship model) may be an underestimate (!)
Freezing Rain Expected from Winter Storm
We can partition the precipitation (called QPF for quantitative precipitation forecast) into rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain by using the temperature and humidity of the column of air above the surface.
These amounts forecast by ECMWF 12z will not all immediately freeze on contact with surfaces like trees and power lines, but a LOT of it will accrete, and cause potentially catastrophic damage.
The National Weather Service forecasts 0.25" to 0.5" inch of ice accumulating across across Texas, and nearly an inch in northern Louisiana into Mississippi. Then, cold air damming by the Appalachians keeps enough cold air at the surface (easterly winds) to put Atlanta under threat of significant icing. Not good!
After a sequence of events beginning in the Western Pacific Ocean led to disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, a massive persistent circulation pattern has allowed the formation of extreme "cold pools" over Canada 🇨🇦 with air temperatures brutal cold throughout the entire troposphere: -40°F near the surface and -40°F at the mid-way point of 500 millibars.
The Polar Vortex Unleashed with multiple "lobes" dropping south and whipping through like a pendulum: next 7-days
Two swings of the "wrecking ball" from the tropospheric Polar Vortex anchored over Ontario, Canada 🇨🇦
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026
The second Arctic blast is actually partly triggered by a PV anomaly in the Arctic north of Greenland that gets stretched, and descends the chute into 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/EiB8v0dmeL
Arctic Blast 1.0 -- Frigid as temperatures plummet into Texas and the Deep South. Absolutely brutal in the Midwest and Great Lakes with minus 20s and minus 30s -- and that's not the wind chill.
Low Temperatures on Saturday
Low Temperatures on Sunday
5°F in Dallas, Texas Monday morning --> frigid
But we are not done -- the Polar Vortex anchored over Canada reloads with another massive blast of cold air into next week. That makes 3 total if you are counting!
Over the next week -->
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 22, 2026
Arctic Blast 1.0 and Arctic Blast 2.0 merge
into Super Arctic Blast
that will entomb the Eastern U.S. into a frigid hellscape.
Temperatures 35°F to 45°F below normal will cripple 🇺🇸 east of the Mississippi.
This is all-time historic vintage cold. pic.twitter.com/zNugF2QAqo
You can see the evolution of the air mass colored by "deviation from normal" or anomaly, which I've color coded using a Barney and Baby Bop theme. This is on par with the O.G. polar vortex from January 2014 when social media (Twitter) weather was just getting started.
And, that will be the end of January, and we will make it!
I made all of these maps and animations (from scratch w/raw data and code) and actually 90% of the weather maps that you see on social media. I don't "dumb down" anything for my audience because I assume everyone has a PhD in something.
You can receive even MORE in depth weather articles at my growing Substack blog (Weather Trader)