"They have stabilized, but the ripples through the supply chain aren't over yet." 

"On a 10-year annualized basis, returns recently reached a level they have only once eclipsed, in 2008..." 

"China's robust buying lately is largely driven by refiners taking advantage..." 

"As the European gas market heads into winter with unusually low inventories, its flexibility to absorb further supply or demand shocks is limited..." 

"Efforts to re-shore minerals mining and refining capacity are also likely to take time, as shown by the persistent concentration of..." 

"Even small supply disruptions may now generate larger and more persistent price spikes than in the past..." 

"... and we keep eating into the surplus that exists around the world."

"Last week it was diesel. Today it is copper."

Nickel has been priced at a consistent premium to copper ever since it started to be mined on a large scale in the mid-19th century. That seeming law of nature looks on the brink of breaking.

For much of 2026, weak Chinese demand prevented oil prices from surging. That has just changed. 

"Against this backdrop, we continue to favor Vale and Ternium over CSN, Gerdau, and Usiminas." 

...global mine production fell 1.1% during the first half of 2026...

Beijing retains a kill switch inside US defense, aerospace, semiconductor, and energy supply chains... 

"We expect the implications to be felt most acutely by net rice-importing..." 

"The market enters the latter part of the third quarter with a relatively high freight-rate floor just as Pacific typhoon activity typically..." 

Putin's remarks at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok... 

"Consequently, we expect gallium, germanium and rare earth supply security to continue to be a major priority in the West in the face of this growing threat." 

"And, by 2030, ex-China primary mine supply still projected to be in deficit by 16,000 tonnes." 

What could possibly go wrong?