In the short-run, the market is likely to require a large risk premium to generate precautionary demand destruction to hedge against stocks reaching critical levels in a risk scenario with longer disruptions.

"You can't even buy fertilizer right now and I think that's the bigger concern for this coming..." 

"There is NO policy response that will stop this ascent in crude in the near term..."

"A scenario where the shock lasts longer than two months..." 

"Prices may decline by $10 on reassuring headlines, but they could rise by $30 once Gulf production shut-ins begin to materialize and ripple through the market."

A prolonged conflict would further delay ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to product shortages and higher production and transportation costs...

Even as miles-driven rose to a record...

“To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil"

This was a welcome report as it showed that not only is US oil production humming along, but US commercial stocks continue to increase and in a worst case scenario of prolonged Hormuz closure, the US can remain relatively energy independent.

Beyond the risk of rare earth metals becoming a major focal point between Beijing and Washington (again), UAMY may also be rising, as antimony is a critical rare earth used... 

"With weak underlying volumes and easing raw material inflation, we expect promotional activity..." 

“I have no interest in selling...”

"You have one party or group of people who are working together who effectively control..." 

Time to rotate into oil?

"Is the era of the 'everyday' Cuban cigar officially over?"

What the actual f**k?

"... but you hit the start of the new decade, it's pretty much all copper."

The administration is mulling carve-outs... 

“We cannot be subjective about coal. The question is how sustainably we can use it...”

"Eramet informs the market that its joint-venture PT Weda Bay Nickel ("PT WBN") has received an initial notification from the Indonesian authorities..."