It's being called a "significant win" for the Trump admin...

Time to plant a garden... 

"The ongoing Middle East conflict is triggering a critical supply crisis in the global aluminium market, with disruptions potentially removing 3 to 3.5 million tonnes of output in 2026" 

Goldman commodity desk view is that if we were to lose 600k MT, price should rally by 5-7% and prompt vol by 5%.

Asian refiners have started pricing their orders for U.S. crude oil against the ICE Brent benchmark instead of the typical pricing on Dubai crude, as the Middle Eastern benchmark has seen wild fluctuations amid choked physical supply from the Persian Gulf.

Much like during COVID, the shock unfolds sequentially rather than simultaneously - a rolling supply disruption moving westward, dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories.

China is on track to import about 3.7 million tons of LNG in March. That would be the lowest monthly import level in the world’s top LNG importer since the spring of 2018, as well as a 25% slump compared to March 2025.

"Temporary shut-ins at Australian LNG plants come at the worst time for LNG buyers looking to replace supply from Qatar." 

"We anticipate that March 2026 will set a new record for..."

"A supply shock that will show up in food prices 6–9 months from now,"

"Yara well understands the importance of its products to customers and will work to bring the operations back online as soon as practical,"

A White House economic adviser said talks with Venezuela and Morocco aim to shield farmers from shortages ahead of planting season.

Both Dubai and Oman cash prices are now trading around $155/bbl, highlighting the severity of the shortage in barrels originating from the Gulf and destined for Asian ports. 

"Beaver Brook in Newfoundland could produce five percent of the world's antimony supply — a mineral critical to warfighting that Washington now calls a national security emergency. China shuttered it."

 

In the short-run, the market is likely to require a large risk premium to generate precautionary demand destruction to hedge against stocks reaching critical levels in a risk scenario with longer disruptions.

"You can't even buy fertilizer right now and I think that's the bigger concern for this coming..." 

"There is NO policy response that will stop this ascent in crude in the near term..."

"A scenario where the shock lasts longer than two months..." 

"Prices may decline by $10 on reassuring headlines, but they could rise by $30 once Gulf production shut-ins begin to materialize and ripple through the market."

A prolonged conflict would further delay ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to product shortages and higher production and transportation costs...