The Iran Off-Ramp...

As the Iran conflict enters its third week with no ceasefire in sight, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become the defining economic choke point of the war. Shipping traffic remains down 90-98% from normal levels, stranding roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows and forcing producers into immediate shut-ins while Asian refiners slash runs by up to 30%. Goldman has already revised its forecast to assume the strait stays flat at ~15% capacity for another 5+ days before any gradual recovery, pushing Q2 Brent averages higher and underscoring that every additional day of disruption amplifies inflation risks across energy, fertilizers (now up ~1/3), and metals.

The Problem

The longer the war drags without an off-ramp, the more the initial oil shock metastasizes into systemic supply-chain collapse.