Even if the IRGC's conventional military capabilities have been severely degraded, the more immediate threat to commercial vessel traffic in the waterway is the IRGC's asymmetric warfare... 

...they now assume 21 days (vs. 10 days prior) of low Strait of Hormuz oil (SoH) flows at 10% of normal levels

"This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already..." 

Iran has roughly 3,000 to 6,000 naval mines.

More AI-nuclear partnerships as the U.S. rushes to cut off foreign fuel dependence... 

Meantime, physical stress is spreading...

"What the Danes should please, please, please do is, if there is any energy consumption that you can do without..." 

Amid ongoing largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

Uranium spot price still volatile while China starts more reactor construction...

...extended disruptions could see Brent prices average $110/bbl in March and might climb towards $150+ by 2Q26.

Notably, the extent of speculative participation remains questionable...

US Crude production dipped modestly last week as the rig count stabilized...

Even after the sharp pullback from Monday’s highs in Asia trading, oil options are still pricing in large daily moves and call skew is highly elevated...

"...reports of tanker traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed 'TACO' anticipation..." 

 

At some point, the market may begin treating these emergency meeting headlines as pure bullsh*t.

U.S. intelligence assets have reportedly begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane...

...because of risks of a delay to our assumption of a gradual 28-day normalization in Strait of Hormuz (SoH) flows from this week onwards.

"Let the sh*t hit the fan ... let dog eat dog."

Rural electric cooperatives may face disruption from cheaper on-site renewables...

"More like nothing on AIS."