Goldman Panics, Expects Oil To Hit $100 Next Week And Reach "Demand Destruction" Levels

Early last Monday - as the reality of Trump's actions in Iran began to strike global markets - Goldman Sachs commodities research team warned that, based on their estimate of the fair value effect of a six-week full halt in Strait of Hormuz flows, crude oil prices warranted an $18/bbl real-time risk premium.

This estimated impact moderates to +$4 if only 50% of the flows are halted for one month.

However, oil prices can rise substantially more if the market demands a premium for the risk of more persistent supply disruptions.