Memorial Day Gas Demand Surge Collides With Hormuz Shock As $5 Demand-Destruction Line Nears

Drivers heading into Memorial Day weekend are set to face some of the highest regular gasoline prices at the pump in years.

With the U.S. national average sitting at $4.53 per gallon (according to AAA data) and no resolution yet on a U.S.-Iran peace deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pump prices risk rising even higher into the holiday weekend as the summer driving season begins.

Let's start with the chart of the day: AAA retail gas prices in the U.S. on a seasonal basis closely track the 2022 run, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict was in its first several months.

Gas prices in 2022 did not top out until mid-June.

The impending problem, with no near-term Hormuz resolution, as JPMorgan analysts recently warned, is that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked into June.

Former CIA analysts and current RBC commodities head Helima Croft told clients days ago that she is "very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future."

AAA Retail Gas Price Map

For Memorial Day 2026, AAA forecasts around 39.1 million Americans will travel by car, representing 87% of all holiday travelers. That will create a meaningful near-term lift in gas demand, especially from Thursday through Monday.

EIA notes that gas demand typically rises into the summer driving season, while last year's Memorial Day period coincided with the highest weekly implied gas demand of 2025 up to that point.

So, in an already tight gas market, a busy Memorial Day driving weekend can certainly pull more barrels through the system, support pump prices, and may only lead to higher prices if no Hormuz resolution is found in the near term. The demand destruction level sits around $5.