Carney's Beijing Gambit Triggers Trump Warning In The Form Of A Big Beautiful Map
After over the weekend warning that he would impose a 10% tariff on imports from several European countries in response to their opposition to his Greenland takeover plan, later threatening the tariff could be raised to 25% within weeks if those governments fail to fall in line - President Trump has once again escalated, this time with an overnight Truth Social post of a map showing not just Greenland as part of the US but Canada too.
The image features President Trump addressing European leaders in the Oval Office. In the background is a map with Canada, Greenland, Venezuela and Cuba shown them as part of the United States, draped over by American flag colors.
The image is actually an edited version of a real photograph from when various leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen - were in Washington, DC in August 2025, for talks focused on Ukraine peace.
A separate AI-generated image Trump put out overnight depicts the president alongside Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Greenland. They are driving an American flag into the ground beside a sign reading, "Greenland-US Territory. Est. 2026."
Trump is now also clearly putting Canada on notice as the next to potentially feel his wrath and repercussions for joining European countries in resisting his Greenland policy.
Among the latest Greenland Truth Social Posts by President Trump below. He also asserted separately "There can be no going back"...
An unnamed US official told NBC, "Trump is really worried about the U.S. continuing to drift in the Western Hemisphere and is focused on this." This means America's longtime northern neighbor is about to feel the pressure to cooperate:
As Trump’s advisers work toward his goal of acquiring Greenland, the president has privately grown more exercised about what he sees as Canada’s similar inability to defend its borders against any encroachment from Russia or China, specifically arguing Canada needs to spend more on defense, the officials said. They said his push has accelerated internal discussions about a broader Arctic strategy and potentially reaching an agreement with Canada this year to fortify its northern border.
NBC observes further, "The current U.S. officials said there is not discussion of stationing American troops on the ground along Canada’s northern border. And unlike with Greenland, Trump is not seeking to purchase Canada or saying he might take it by U.S. military force, the senior administration official and current and former U.S. officials said."
Canada is actually weighing joining the Europeans with a small troop deployment to Greenland. But as we previewed earlier, while no final decision has been made on a Canadian deployment, such an act would remain largely symbolic in nature - but Canadian leadership under the Carney government is likely very worried about needlessly provoking Trump's wrath. But too late, it seems.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that Canada is "concerned" about what he has called US "escalation" - but again this is a bad moment for Canada to get 'noticed' by Trump for joining European 'defiance' of this future plans for Greenland. Domestic pressure in Canada is rising for the Carney government to 'stand up' to Trump:
As NATO allies send small deployments to Greenland for joint exercises, Prime Minister Mark Carney is mulling sending Canadian troops to join them. Retired Royal Canadian Air Force general and former chief of the defense staff Thomas Lawson says the deployments signal that NATO countries — apart from the U.S. — are unified behind Denmark and Greenland.
—NATO exercises in Greenland a 'rebuke' to Trump that Canada should join: retired general
Meanwhile some big, unexpected things are happening between Canada and China, along the lines of a 'reset'...
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pitching Canada as a pillar of a reshaped global trade order, leaning into closer ties with China and a patchwork of smaller trade agreements, even as the northern neighbor remains deeply tethered to the US economy - and despite years of bad relations with Beijing triggered largely by the Huawei affair.
This is the perhaps best illustration that Trump's new "Monroe doctrine" is objectively achieving the exact opposite of what it intends. pic.twitter.com/M5WJBkoj1M
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) January 16, 2026
Carney is currently in Beijing describing a "new era of relations between Canada and China" and explicitly talking…
Last week, Carney went further than many of his European counterparts by striking a deal with Beijing, signaling an effort for Canada to get ahead in a post-American-centric trade system after President Donald Trump's tariffs have deeply strained long-standing commercial relationships nearly to breaking point.
Fresh commentary from Rabobank unpacks this theme further in the following...
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Canada offers an example of an alternative approach? Mark Carney just made the first visit to China by a Canadian Prime Minister in almost a decade. Canada’s name has been mud in Beijing for years after the former Trudeau government complied with a US warrant for the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2019. Trudeau then placed substantial tariffs on imports of Chinese steel, aluminium and electric vehicles – where duties were set at 100% for the latter.
Carney has now signed a deal with China to lower EV tariffs to 6.1% up to an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles. In return China will drop tariffs on Canadian canola to 15%. Having previously described China as the greatest threat to Canada’s national security, Carney is now saying that the relations with the Middle Kingdom are more predictable than relations with the United States, and is making a show of cozying up to Beijing. As one observer puts it on X, Carney’s pivot is a “vintage Gaullist move.”
Carney is attempting to leverage Trump by signing deals with Beijing and even flirting with the idea of sending Canadian troops to Greenland. With Chinese influence having been ejected unceremoniously from Venezuela, and under pressure in the Panama Canal, the last thing the Trump administration would want is for Canada to offer China another geopolitical toehold in the Western hemisphere. Carney offering that toehold in the Arctic, directly adjacent to Greenland, must be particularly ‘de-Gaulling’ for Trump, who is so far calling the bluff by shrugging his shoulders. However, this strategy is incredibly high risk.
Not only does Carney’s backdown on Chinese EVs threaten Canada’s own auto industry (see criticism from Ontario Premier Doug Ford here), but there is always the chance that poking the (US) bear might actually elicit a response from the bear. Canada sends ~75% of its goods exports to the United States while the United States is by far the largest supplier of armaments to Canada. Consequently, Carney will be hoping that Trump’s response is to offer him a better deal than Xi Jinping is willing to give. However, with the USMCA trade agreement up for renegotiation and the US back in a Great Power frame of mind, Carney runs the risk that Donald Trump might instead decide that Canada is also very nice..