UBS Discusses Next Maritime Chokepoint Investors Should Watch

A lot of attention has centered on the Strait of Hormuz since the waterway was effectively shut not only by the IRGC drone threat, but mostly because maritime insurers are withdrawing war-risk coverage across the region. Our focus now shifts to the other critical maritime chokepoints. If Washington can pressure Iranian oil flows and, by extension, curb China's cheap Gulf crude flows, then the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea also emerge as potential flashpoints that traders can no longer afford to ignore.

For more color on which critical maritime chokepoints and geopolitical flashpoints investors should watch next, Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary of Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke with UBS's Aditi Samajpati at the 14th UBS OneASEAN Summit in Singapore to discuss the issue earlier on Thursday.

Kausikan told Samajpati that China claims about 80% of the South China Sea, but other surrounding countries reject those claims, and none of the disputes are likely to be resolved in the near term. He described the situation in the highly disputed waterway as a "strategic stalemate," not an immediate crisis, because China is unlikely to openly block trade or challenge freedom of navigation if doing so risks war with the U.S.

"Obviously, the South China Sea is another point of vulnerability. There are multiple disputes, and China claims about 80% of the South China Sea, which is not accepted by the surrounding states," he said.

"But I think overall the situation in the South China Sea - by the way, none of these disputes are going to be resolved - but I think overall it is not ideal, but not dire," Kausikan said.

He continued, "It's a strategic stalemate. On the other hand, the Chinese cannot stop the US and other powers from operating in the South China Sea, without risking war."

Kausikan pointed out that the presence of the U.S. Navy should be viewed as a stabilizing force that preserves trade flows and prevents China from turning its claims into uncontested control.

Regarding U.S. pressure on Venezuela and Iran, Kausikan said it is unclear whether Washington's goal is specifically to squeeze China's crude imports, but it could have that effect, since both countries are critical, cheap crude suppliers to China.

At the same time, he said Trump's willingness to provide naval escort to commercial traffic through Hormuz suggests the U.S. is not trying to completely choke off China, but rather to create leverage.

For Asia as a whole, Kausikan said energy stability should be a major issue across the region. He said ASEAN's best path toward greater strategic autonomy is deeper energy integration, especially through a shared regional grid that could combine nuclear, hydro, and other power sources.

To sum up, China and the rest of Asia received a giant wake-up call this week as cheap crude and LNG flows from the Gulf were curtailed. All of this is happening ahead of President Trump's trip to China later this month.

We think readers should keep a close eye on other maritime chokepoints worldwide.

Spillover risks from the Middle East conflict are building. The question now is: where is the next powder keg to go off?