US President Trump said he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, while he added that Iran’s leaders talk much differently when at a meeting than they do to the press, and they are much more reasonable.

March CPI will show a notable reacceleration in headline inflation, driven mainly by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict and the associated rise in energy and commodity prices.

...but remember, 'hope' is not a strategy...

Turns out there's a price point for everything where consumers just stop paying. Guess that whole "price as a rationing mechanism" talk means something after all...

US President Trump urged Israeli PM Netanyahu to de-escalate operations in Lebanon, while Netanyahu instructed the cabinet to open direct negotiations but said there is no ceasefire in Lebanon.

US and Iranian delegations to hold direct talks, starting Saturday; Trump reportedly asked Israeli PM Netanyahu to scale back Israel’s strikes in Lebanon; Reports say Israel to scale back operations, yet Netanyahu remains firm on striking Hezbollah; Mixed reporting on whether Israel-Lebanon meeting to go ahead; Hezbollah MP says group rejects any direct talks between Lebanon and Israel; Strikes in the GCC continue; Operating activities halted at several Saudi energy facilities leads to reduction in oil output; IRGC Navy announces alternative shipping routes to avoid possible sea mines; Under the ceasefire agreement, Iran will reportedly allow no more than 15 ships per day through the Strait of Hormuz; Weak US 30yr auction.

...not so mighty mouse...

Expected real rates in the US will remain under pressure from war-induced and increasingly entrenched inflation...

"His firm, Horizon Kinetics, along with its predecessors, had been TPL's largest shareholder..." 

...the technical set up has flipped dramatically from a headwind to a tailwind...

Overall, this was a mediocre 30Y auction, with average stats resulting in the first tail for the tenor since last November, yet with markets still only focused on Iran there was virtually no little market reaction.

Global Fundamental long/short funds were up +2.9% on April 8, the best day since 3/16/22, and a 5.2-Sigma event vs. the past 5 years. US-listed ETF shorts fell -7.4% yesterday, the largest 1-day covering since Aug ’20 and the 3rd largest in the past decade!

Objectively, the ceasefire already looks more fragile than expected before it’s even properly underway...

The war with Iran has put potentially irreversible strain on the global trading system, with gold reserves having eclipsed central bank holdings of valuation-adjusted dollar assets for the first time in the Bretton Woods II era...

The easy money from the ceasefire was made yesterday. Today is about digestion...

The trouble with ceasefires is that they often require both sides to agree to a set of terms, and then actually cease fire.

...as 'soft' survey data suggests a stressed labor market.

“There’s a fair amount of scepticism in the market about the ceasefire and the upcoming negotiations.3The big question is what state the global economy will be in after the crisis.”

US President Trump threatened massive military escalation if Iran deal terms are not met, vowed no nuclear weapons, and they are to secure the Strait of Hormuz.