"All the insurers at Lloyd's are still quoting ..." 

The “markets’ starting point from when the conflict began was quite high so it’s also some excess optimism being cut to risk premiums which appears closer to what we perceive as the fundamentals.”

Bonds are as vulnerable to rising food prices as they are to those from energy...

While European governments work on emergency plans to mitigate soaring energy prices, the maritime insurance market is experiencing a seismic shock.

Even the most aggressive SPR release rate would be far too low to materially ease a 16 mbd shortfall and would likely provide only initial relief...

All the listed policy measures will have very limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured...

...the cracks are visible, but the market is still hoping the damage remains contained.

The kneejerk reaction to the company's earnings has been favorable. Let's see if this continues into tomorrow's session...

Reports suggest Iran has begun deploying mines in Strait of Hormuz; Trump sees no reports of them doing so, but threatens significant military action if they are not removed; US Energy Secretary Wright, in a now deleted post, said the US Navy has escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz (later rejected by WH officials); IEA meeting reportedly ends with no decision on crude stockpile release; Weak US 3yr note auction; US existing home sales rise in Feb.; Oil tanker explosion near Abu Dhabi; AMZN attracts ~$126B of orders for US bond sale.

...a Wright mess, no SPR release, and mines!?

"Oracle is in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t position"

...still-micro blowups in a few pockets of credit markets look more like an early warning for broader risk sentiment.

Treasury yields are not yet pricing in the full ramifications of the energy shock...

A subpar, disappointing auction which however could be attributed to the melt up in stocks. However, if this weakness persists in the week's upcoming coupon auctions, that could be a problem. 

The "buy signal" will come when Iran, not Trump, agrees to cease attacks and negotiate. That could be this week or next...

...points to a market that is simmering on the surface, but starting to boil underneath.