“The longer the war in Iran lasts and the more destructive it becomes, the greater the risk of inflation will be. Consequently, the sooner and more decisively we’ll have to respond.”

"Are we back to running the 2022 playbook?"

This was a messy JOLTS report and aside from the now revised away January spike, it confirms that the US labor market continues to deteriorate slowly with every passing month. 

...but inflation expectations surged and labor market trended weaker...

Nobody in power is going to tell a journalist or analyst what their war plans are, just what they *want* them to hear and then tell others. For any D&D players reading, there is no THAC0 in war...

"Price levels remain elevated, but the rate of appreciation has slowed materially..."

"One can’t exclude a swift resolution, but it won’t mean going back exactly to where we were in Februar.  Investors are seeing the glass half-full. During the past 15 years or so, buying the dip has been absolutely key."

CTAs have now sold a near record $184bn of global equities over the last month (of which $55BN in the US)...

"Work remains ongoing to agree and finalise a transaction and it is possible that an agreement could be concluded today..." 

US President Trump reportedly told aides he's willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to the WSJ.

It's not just for the nuclear renaissance. Proliferation is still the major concern...

US President Trump reportedly told aides he's willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to the WSJ.

One of the worst 1-day moves in 5 years and the 3-day move is approaching -15%, 2nd worst stretch since Covid.

The Houthis could place roughly 5 mbd of Saudi bypass capacity — currently routed through Yanbu — at risk, a vulnerability
that could add $20/bbl to oil prices by JPMorgan estimates.

...'no kings' but judicial tyranny is great!

Some of BYD’s difficulties are tied to its own strategic choices...

WTI settled > $100 for first time since war started...correlations creaked (but didn't snap completely), momo massacred amid massive negative gamma...

WTI settled above USD 100/bbl.

REAR VIEW: Trump threatens Iran with attacks on energy facilities and Kharg Island if they a deal is not reached shortly; Iran's Foreign Ministry says US demands were excessive and unreasonable; Yemen's Houthis join Iran in war against US and Israel; Attacks on energy/metal facilities in Middle East continue as diplomacy yields little progress; Iran approves Hormuz tolls; JPY gains on hawkish BoJ SOO and jawboning from officials; Powell says Fed may look through supply-driven shocks, depending on inflation expectations; Miran reiterates recent commentary.

...the market is mispricing the policy distribution now... with expectations of a much larger hawkish shock than historical experience would suggest...