Everyone is betting on a year-end meltup.

"The gold bull is driven by policy & inflation: 2020s are a decade of US & global fiscal excess, 2020s are a decade of tech & trade tariffs & protectionism"

let’s run through a variety of issues that, for better or worse, make sense from a market pricing standpoint.

Whoops. 

"...the Fed would have delivered only 25bp had the FOMC known that the September jobs report would be so strong, especially with the revisions to previous months"

"They're increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their..." 

“The future of this contract is in your hands,”

...a second Trump term could ignite a boom in the physical world. This stands in stark contrast to most of the past 15 years, which have seen the domination of investments in the digital, online world.

...and money-market funds see outflows as tax-filing-extension deadline looms.

"I estimate ~$6B worth of daily VWAP demand in the 19 trading days of November"

Europe's softening services indicators are primarily due to weakness in consumer demand, rather than spillover effects from manufacturing. Lagarde confirmed that the ECB has been surprised by this weakness

"...risk/reward doesn’t necessarily argue that one should go-for-broke right now..."

"Buffett's earlier rounds of selling had already cut the holding..." 

Bad news is piling up in Europe and risk events are looming in the US, yet the market is not far from its highs. Investors don’t want to miss out on a potential year-end rally, while bulking up on hedges just in case.

The EU is has prepared a list of American goods it could target with tariffs if Trump wins the US election and follows through on his threat to hit the bloc with punitive trade measures.

China decided to out BS the BLS...

Officers noted these incidents occurred in public settings and reported a pattern of increased fights at the start of the school year...