Prepare For A Big Retail Sales Beat

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Aug 15, 2023 - 02:40 AM

One month ago, in a testament to just how much of a joke its sellside research team has become, Goldman - best known for being dead wrong on "transitory" inflation for all of 2021 and chasing economic momentum ever since with its traditional bullish bias - predicted that June retail sales would come in stronger than expected and validate the bank's bullish economic outlook, to wit:

High-frequency data from alternative sources is upbeat. We seasonally adjust weekly credit card spending, housing demand, and industrial freight indicators through early July, finding that consumer spending continues to grow, manufacturing activity is currently bottoming or rebounding, and the large declines in housing activity appear mostly behind us.

Needless to say Goldman was wrong with last month's retail sales print missing across most metrics, but Bank of America - which unlike Goldman actually has an operational credit card division on which it can rely to divine consumer spending trends (and isn't merely a money-losing group that it is desperate to offload) - was spot on, as it has been spot on for much of the past two years, especially when its call diverged with consensus.