US Retail Sales Soared In July On Record Amazon Prime Day

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Aug 15, 2023 - 12:41 PM

"Prepare for a big beat" was the message from BofA's sage-like forecasters for this morning's retail sales print....

And sure enough they were right as July retail sales rose 0.7% MoM (beating the 0.4% jump expected) -the best monthly jump since Jan

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, everything was green except

  • Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers: -0.3%

  • Furniture and home furnishings -1.8%

  • Electronics and appliance stores -1.3%

Non-store retailers soared - with some suggesting this was Amazon's record sales on Prime Day (which means assume a sequential decline in this category in August)...

On a YoY basis, headline and core retail sales accelerated...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the control group - which is used in the GDP calculation - soared 1.0% MoM (more than double the expected 0.4% MoM rise).

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman boosted their Q3 GDP tracking estimate by seven tenths to +2.2% (qoq ar) and their domestic final sales growth forecast by eight tenths to +2.1%. They left their past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q2 unchanged after rounding at +2.6% (qoq ar), compared to +2.4% as originally reported.

One last thing, all of this data is completely divergent from the collapse in retail sales seen by Redbook data...

Source: Bloomberg

We wonder who's right...

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that all of these numbers are nominal.