"Prepare for a big beat" was the message from BofA's sage-like forecasters for this morning's retail sales print....
And sure enough they were right as July retail sales rose 0.7% MoM (beating the 0.4% jump expected) -the best monthly jump since Jan
Under the hood, everything was green except
Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers: -0.3%
Furniture and home furnishings -1.8%
Electronics and appliance stores -1.3%
Non-store retailers soared - with some suggesting this was Amazon's record sales on Prime Day (which means assume a sequential decline in this category in August)...
On a YoY basis, headline and core retail sales accelerated...
Finally, we note that the control group - which is used in the GDP calculation - soared 1.0% MoM (more than double the expected 0.4% MoM rise).
Goldman boosted their Q3 GDP tracking estimate by seven tenths to +2.2% (qoq ar) and their domestic final sales growth forecast by eight tenths to +2.1%. They left their past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q2 unchanged after rounding at +2.6% (qoq ar), compared to +2.4% as originally reported.
One last thing, all of this data is completely divergent from the collapse in retail sales seen by Redbook data...
We wonder who's right...
Bear in mind that all of these numbers are nominal.