Apple's $2,000 Foldable iPhone Could Sell 6 Million Units, Counterpoint Says

Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam expects Apple to sell about 6 million units of its first foldable iPhone this year. The estimate offers an early sentiment gauge of potential demand for Apple's first-ever foldable handset, priced at roughly $2,000.

The iPhone Duo sales forecast hinges on Apple's ability to ramp up production, Lam said, according to Bloomberg News. The new foldable iPhone is scheduled for release in October.

Separately, market research firm IDC expects global foldable shipments to rise 13% to 22.9 million units this year. Without Apple’s iPhone Duo, that segment would slide into a contraction.

Initial iPhone 18 Pro family sales rose 12% compared with the iPhone 17 Pro launch, according to Lam. That performance helped Apple capture a 33% share of China's smartphone market during the period tracked.

However, iPhone 18 sales signals in China are mixed. Edison Lee, Jefferies' head of China and Hong Kong technology and software research, commented on the launch on Monday, saying, "Weak 18P/PM resale prices vs. 17P/PM remain our clearest sign of softer demand, despite a weekend rebound in lead times that could reflect tighter supply as DUO ramps."

Lam pointed out, "Price hikes of over $200 on many Chinese flagship models may have raised the price anchor, strengthening the iPhone’s relative value proposition." That's good news for Apple as the price gap between its phones and those of domestic brands narrows, making its premium prices easier to defend in an overall soft market.

For Apple, the US launch clashes with a souring consumer backdrop. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged in September to its lowest level since April 2014, while elevated gasoline and diesel prices continue to squeeze household budgets.

The question is whether cash-strapped consumers can afford $2,000 for a foldable iPhone. Vision Pro's disappointing launch a few years back offers a cautionary tale.

If the Duo struggles to attract consumers beyond wealthy first adopters, Apple's new CEO could face an early test of the company's push further upmarket.