...or to put it another way, here is what Deutsche Bank believes are the only two "upside risks" for markets - "a smooth start to Fed tightening" and "eurozone growth surprises to the upside." Other than that, hope that The Fed reverts to old norms and eases, un-tightens is the last best hope for this decoupled, divergent equity market...
According to Reuters, the suspects targeted in a pre-dawn raid in France were planning to attack the Quatre Temps on Thursday, the busiest mall in France located in the business district at La Defense. Meanwhile, WaPo, citing European intelligence officials, says Abdelhamid Abaaoud was killed in Wednesday's operation.
Perhaps notably, despite an initial kneejerk higher, US equities remain below the levels seen when The FOMC Statement was released in October. Gold, The USDollar, and bonds are all modestly higher post-FOMC Minutes... Some might suggest the long-end is pricing in a "policy error" as on the day 30Y is down 2bps while 2Y is up over 2bps.
"Federal Reserve officials meeting last month anticipated it “could well be” time to raise short-term interest rates at a December policy meeting after keeping them pinned near zero for seven years. Fed officials thus decided to change the wording of their Oct. 28 policy statement to ensure their options were open for a move in December, according to minutes of the October meeting released Wednesday with the regular three-week lag."
With everything red since the October 28th "hawkish" FOMC meeting - which greenlit a December rate hike and convinced the world that everything is awesome in America (well why else would The 'smart' Fed raise rates?) - today's minutes suggest an FOMC that is perhaps not quite as "whatever it takes" committed to a December liftoff...
*FOMC MEMBERS WANTED TO CONVEY DEC. LIFTOFF MAY BE APPROPRIATE
*SOME FED OFFICIALS: UNLIKELY LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MET BY DEC.
*FED OFFICIALS SAID ACTUAL LIFTOFF DECISION TO DEPEND ON DATA
But bear in mind there is a lot of data between now and December 16th (including payrolls) and what if stocks drop? Pre-Minutes: 68% rate-hike odds, S&P Futs 2064, 10Y 2.28%, EURUSD 1.0640, Gold $1070, WTI $40.45
Just three weeks ago we warned of "all kinds of mayhem"about to be let loose as scientists feared this year's El Nino may be among the biggest ever, and as Bloomberg reports, the impact is already being felt in California... but not in much needed rain or snow. California has yet to see the full force of El Nino, and it’s already tripping up the state’s power-demand forecasters. The state saw "significant" electricity price spikes in the third quarter as El Nino made it difficult to predict how much power would be needed with a "relatively high percentage of intervals" when prices spiked above $1,000 a megawatt-hour in the 5-minute market... 25 times normal costs!
Well, we’re less than one hour away from the release of the October Fed minutes. Who’s excited? Despite the fact that the October NFP print came after the FOMC meeting, market “bird watchers” will still be keen on parsing every last word for hints around what the very “data dependent” Fed may or may not announce next month. Here's an early take on what to look for.
"...the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity. If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it?"
A lot of hope has been pinned on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as an outlet for surging North American gas supply. But a couple of events the past week show that getting LNG exports off the ground may be more difficult than most observers have predicted.
“Do not involve Sales in anyway [sic] whatsoever. In fact avoid mentioning the existence of the whole BATS Last Look functionality. If you get enquiries just obfuscate and stonewall.... for the future, sales absolutely 100% do not know about the existence of last look and it shouldn’t be a concern for them... IF any client does call up about a rejected trade . . . it is important that you state in any communication ‘THE TRADE WAS REJECTED BECAUSE OF LATENCY.’ . . . DO NOT talk about P&L on trades."
Charlie Sheen’s announcement that he is HIV positive has created a huge uproar as critics attack him from every direction, but the truth is that Charlie Sheen is simply a reflection of our society as a whole. You see, the truth is that it isn’t just big Hollywood stars that are engaged in risky sexual behavior. According to the CDC, there are 110 million cases of sexually-transmitted disease in America today, and another 20 million STD cases are added to that total every year. The United States has the highest STD infection rate in the entire industrialized world, and more than half of all Americans will have a sexually-transmitted disease at some point during their lives..."the increases are quite alarming."
Massive excess supply, storage filling rapidly, production near record levels all appear to be trumping any 'war' premium as WTI has now erased all of the post-Paris gains after DOE confirmed surging inventories continue...
With poll numbers plunging, it is hardly surprising that Chris Christie would come out swinging in the aftermath of the French attacks and while his comments this morning during a Fox News interview are rather astonishingly frank, they are not entirely without merit as the Obama administration appears to tumble from pillar to post with regard foreign policy and specifically ISIS. Remarking on John Kerry's comment that the terror attacks in Paris lacked the "rationale" of the assault earlier this year on the staff of 'Charlie Hebdo', Chistie exclaimed the Secretary of State should "get some sleep and shut up," adding that President Obama "was living in a fantasy land" and should focus on protecting the U.S., not helping Syrian refugees.
Overnight none other than the German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere said that the "Syrian passport found next to a suicide bomber in the Paris terror attacks may have been planted." “There are indications that this was a planted lead, but it still can’t be ruled out that this was indeed an IS terrorist posing as a refugee,” he told reporters in Berlin on Tuesday, referring to Islamic State, which France blames for organizing the violence.
Amid souring bets on Brazil and the general malaise across EM, PIMCO has been dethroned as the king of emerging market bonds. A fund run by Ireland-incorporated Stone Harbor has overtaken PIMCO's EM Local Bond Fund as the world's largest emerging market fixed income fund by AUM as rollercoaster bets on Brazil and the departure of both El-Erian and Gross weighs on investor sentiment.
You didn’t think the surveillance state would give up that easily did you? Of course not. Unsurprisingly, fresh off the heels of the Paris terror attacks, the usual authoritarian suspects in the U.S. government are running around exploiting the tragedy in a bid to further erode privacy and civil liberties.
The Fed's Bill Dudley confirmed this morning why The Fed is so keen to raise rates no matter what - "liftoff will signal The Fed's confidence in the US economy." In other words, the 'con' continues... We have two simple questions - 1) Given the chart below, which 'economy' is The Fed confident in? and 2) What is The Fed going to say when they reverse the rate hike (as we have seen with every nation who has tried to raise rates since 2010)?
On Monday, nearly as soon as the markets opened, stocks for weapons manufacturers began to soar. In fact, it could be argued that the financial incentive created by both the weapons industry and the plunder of foreign resources, is what drives governments to war to begin with. In fact, a recent study proved that resource-rich nations are 100 times more likely to have a foreign power intervene in their internal conflicts.