Orange Juice, Cocoa, Coffee Are The Hottest Commodities 

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Dec 19, 2023 - 01:00 AM

Futures for orange juice, cocoa, and coffee have surged well into double-digit territory this year, standing out in contrast to the broader commodity market and the UN's global food index, which have seen declines over the same period. 

On November 22, orange juice futures topped more than 100% gains on the year. Supplies are in a severe shortage in Florida as the nation's top-producing citrus state has been plagued with disease and storms. 

At the end of November, cocoa futures were up 79% due to El Nino-induced weather disturbances that led to poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana - some of the world's largest cocoa producers.'

And in the coffee market, Arabica coffee futures are up 16% on the year due to severe drought conditions in Brazil. Also, supplies are dwindling as ICE-monitored arabica coffee stockpiles dropped to a 24-year low

Source: Bloomberg

When the three commodities, some popular with breakfast-lovers, are compared with the Bloomberg Commodity Index and UN's FAO Food Price Index, food inflation appears sticky, and there is nothing central banks can do with their monetary wonds to tame weather. 

This is why elevated and prolonged food inflation is dangerous: Last month, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, told Bloomberg that the current food crisis has already surpassed the one in 2007-08, which ultimately sparked the Arab Spring across the Middle East a few years later.