markets


Goldman's Commodity Desk Lays Out The Oil Price Scenarios From Iran War

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History shows that oil prices can rise significantly, and well above fair-value estimates when geopolitical uncertainty is high and when the market puts some weight on supply disruptions persisting


Equity Futures Slide, Oil And Gold Jump, But No Panic

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It's bad, but it could have been worse. 


Flawed Dollar Is Best Safe Haven From Iran War

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The dollar exhibit the strongest negative correlation with the MSCI World index during selloffs. This relationship also holds well during larger equity drawdowns.


US and Israel launched strikes on Iran which killed its Supreme Leader, while Iran retaliated against US bases and neighbours - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Strikes continued on Sunday and President Trump said operations will continue in full force; IRGC shuts Strait of Hormuz.

Is Credit Whispering, Or Screaming?

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For the past couple of years, it has been relatively safe to assume credit is well behaved and relatively range bound. It is unclear if that remains the case.



Market Topping Process?

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...the path of least resistance in early March tilts toward further consolidation or a modest pullback before the seasonal tailwinds attempt to reassert themselves.


Germany's Pension Time Bomb: $2+ Billion In CRE Losses Expose Cracks In The Fiat Era

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Years of ultra-loose monetary policy have massively increased yield pressure in private retirement systems... revealing itself in painful losses among German pension funds.


AI Boom And European Bond Markets: A Deep Dive

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Big Tech is planning massive investments in its own energy generation. Combined with the ongoing AI boom, the massive expansion of data centers is stretching every capital market to its limits, and even the European bond market is increasingly in the crosshairs...


All Hell Breaks Loose In Private Credit

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"The market is selling anything remotely credit‑sensitive"


After The Iran Attack, Is Bitcoin Giving A "Green Light" Ahead Of Monday's Market Open

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"Bitcoin, which I view as a risk-on type of asset in this situation, has now recovered from small early loss to slightly higher. At the moment, I’m optimistic for a “risk on” start to the week."

 


What War With Iran Could Mean For Markets Monday

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The way I see it, there are three very different paths that are possible here...


'Weeks Where Decades Happen': Global Reflections With Goldman's Top Trader

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While 99% of the time traders focus on finding the best risk-adjusted growth opportunities over the next six months... we happen to be in the 1% of time when investors are debating terminal value...


Hartnett: Private Credit Trigger For Market "Flush" Now In Play

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"When bank loan funds break bad, “bad events” (CNY deval, COVID, UK pension crisis) happen: proper flush in risk assets... until Fed eases and/or AI capex cut eases credit tension."


Economic Sentiment Belies Strong Economic Estimates

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Economic growth metrics for the United States have recently shown surprising resilience; however, consumers’ economic sentiment has not...


Credit Markets Finally Crack As Private Credit Contagion Infects Public Markets

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"a spike in private defaults could ripple across public markets, widening spreads and impairing liquidity."


"A Wild F**king Month..."

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HALO hot, crypto not... we haven't seen this since 2008!


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AI Can Now Unmask Anonymous Internet Users, New Study Finds

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...researchers show that modern large language models (LLMs) can re-identify people behind pseudonymous online accounts at a scale and accuracy that far surpass previous techniques.


Lululemon Founder Blasts Board Again Amid Stock Collapse

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" ... response was weak and insufficient." 


SpaceX Readies IPO Paperwork For March, Targeting $1.75 Trillion Valuation

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A planned confidential filing would allow SpaceX to receive regulatory feedback and revise disclosures before they are made public.


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Trump says undecided on Iran, not happy with how they negotiate; US Core and Headline PPI comes in hot; Hotter-than-expected French and Spanish Prelim CPI, but Germany State CPI prints soft; PBoC to cut FX Risk Reserve Ratio for forward FX sales; NFLX walks away from WBD deal, PSKY wins.