...for the first time this year, retail investors are showing persistent signs of weakness, with weekly purchases decelerating by ~30%

We have succumbed to the illusory belief that "the powers behind the curtain" can--and will--always save us from a market crash and "real recession"...

After Affleck previously warned about the risks artificial intelligence poses to Hollywood...

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while he added all US bases should immediately be closed in the region and those bases should be attacked. 

"Be first, be smarter, or cheat..."

"Sentiment is constrained by long-term AI fears, current competitive pressures, revenue deceleration, and margin headwinds from AI investments" 

Not good. 

New Iranian Supreme Leader says Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, calls for US bases in the region to be attacked; Fuel tankers struck in the Gulf; Trump stands ground on stopping "evil Empire, Iran"; Trump admin is reportedly set to suspend the Jones Act to curb oil price increases; Iran Deputy FM reportedly says we're not laying mines in Hormuz Strait; US is to release 172mln barrels of crude from strategic petroleum reserve; Iran says it gives permission for Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; US Initial Jobless Claims unchanged W/W, Continued Claims rise; USTR Greer says US is initiating Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners.

"If we get to Sunday when futures open without a resolution, we think risk assets will see a more aggressive sell-off. "

‘That would be the exact same as last year’s COLA of 2.8 percent,’ a seniors group said.

Overall, this was a solid if not stellar 30Y auction, which considering the mauling the long-end has been subjected to - note the 10Y is now trading at 4.24%, up sharply from 3.97% two weeks ago - it was a very respectable result.

The only way out of this crisis is through. Through Hormuz. Through Iranian resistance. Through violence. Anything that happens in the financial, not the physical, space is ultimately irrelevant vs. that dynamic.   

...identifying private credit as a "key risk"...

The Iran war is the biggest risk to a US economy otherwise showing broad-based strength and a liquidity backdrop very supportive of asset prices...

"...we think a "run on the bank" is inevitable and would recommend all investors to get out of levered private credit while they still can..."

Florida was the top destination for movers in the United States, followed by South Carolina and Arizona.

Ship brokers said the 20 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf make up nearly half of all LNG ships currently available for charter.

“While Trump’s claim that we could soon see a resolution to the conflict does provide hesitancy for the bulls, the reality of the situation will undoubtedly call for higher prices as the days roll on”

"I am not feeling warm and fuzzy... The US may want an off-ramp … but it takes two to tango..."