Officials say the system will handle overflow and repeat calls when human operators are busy...

...troubled Taiwanese and krazy Toreans...

Money markets shifted dovish following the CPI release, pricing in a 40% chance of a 25bps Fed rate hike at the September meeting (prev. 50%).

US CPI matches expectations in July; Trump says think will keep control over Strait of Hormuz; Pakistan says there are talks of a 60-day ceasefire extension; Iranian source says no talks are being held to extend the ceasefire with the US; Fed's Collins prepared to raise rates if data calls for it; Average US 10yr auction; SMCI, CRWV, LITE, NBIS all rally on better-than-expected earnings.

S&P 500's 2026 rally is being reinforced by a widening pool of buyers... even as record demand for upside call options signals investors are now paying up to chase gains rather than just hedge against losses...

The IEA slashed its 2026 global oil supply forecast, with output now expected to plunge 4.3 million barrels per day this year as the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushes the market deeper into deficit

...then September and October get choppy (supply, seasonals, midterms)

Overall, this was a solid auction, and following yesterday's impressive 3Y, we expect tomorrow's 30Y sale to have no problems finding buyers.

Investors have awakened to the financial risks of the artificial intelligence buildout, and they have a deep well of precedent to draw on...

AI implied vol relative to the rest of the market is elevated, "sensing the hesitance for clients to risk back into these names"...

“The impact of the last round of intervention has been wiped out...”

Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business...

This routine will likely continue through to the US midterms – and then we will see what happens...

Energy price deflation dominates... SuperCore CPI YoY at the slowest since Sept 2021...

Now that the labor situation is known (and lousy), attention turns to the July CPI due Wednesday at 8:30am ET, where we don't expect anything close to the same fireworks from last Friday's jobs print. 

Term premium in US Treasuries is rising faster than in other countries due to less policy guidance from the Fed coupled with rising inflation and inflation volatility...

"A higher inflation reading would likely boost expectations of a hike in September and December and thereby putting pressure on equity and bond prices"

“Earnings drive market outcomes. In 151 years, every single 20% market decline was accompanied by a double-digit earnings decline, with zero exceptions.”

...why the current AI credit cycle looks less like a free lunch and more like a classic "heads I win, tails you lose" setup