Just before the Iran war which sent oil prices soaring, the US economy was in surprisingly good shape according to the latest NY Fed consumer expectations survey. 

These are the key levels to watch...

the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the durable goods and core PCE reports on Friday. Fed officials are in a blackout period so no speeches this week. 

For US equities, the bigger risk is a sustained period of severe oil disruption that weighs on economic growth...

"This collaboration reflects what's possible globally..." 

"The market is anticipating the worst-case scenario. The selloff is all about oil, it’s about the inflation that is deduced from it, it’s about the risk of stagflation."

...instinct is that once the dust settles this likely proves to be a buying opportunity for many of the assets people wanted but to own (EM/Asia). The difficulty is duration...

Many sellers who pulled their homes off the market last year are relisting now in hopes of capitalizing on spring homebuying "season..."

"I am concerned about the scale of the Open Interest (OI) in the options market…. If we look at the move in the vols that have happened over this week, they have been enormous… I do not think that option position has cleared…." - Goldman on Nat Gas

His decision comes four months after his congressional district was redrawn to favor Democrats.

APAC stocks sold off heavily with global markets rattled after the Iran war entered a second week with no signs of abating; US equity futures extended on their post-NFP declines.

⁠Lee said in the ​government would "swifly implement ​and ⁠boldly impement" a maximum price ⁠system ​on ​petroleum products.

"The market narrative centers on life insurers as a conduit for private credit risk and on the growing web of ownership and distribution ties between insurers and alternative asset managers."

...with $5 gas imminent, he better be right!

"Trump approval on economy (40%) & inflation (36%) back at lows (Chart 2), must reverse 45% jump in US oil prices, 15% jump in gasoline prices"- Hartnett

...the quantum of things to be nervous about continue to increase and the largest problem in my mind is that none of them have a clear off-ramp...

If the credit risk is already mispriced too aggressively, then we have nothing to fear. If we haven’t reached that stage, then we have a lot to fear, which is what my concerns about...

Until that gap closes... it argues for respecting downside convexity even if the index itself hasn’t fully cracked yet...