There is no shame in armistice when the alternative is Armageddon...

"We think the bar for direct ECB intervention is very high, but France may not be the last test. Fiscal challenges are tough all over...  Markets are less willing to look through them, and investors are now pricing greater risks ahead."

• US President Trump is considering joining Saudi strikes against Yemen's Houthis following deadly airport attacks, while Iran reiterated that Hormuz will only reopen once the US fulfils all seven conditions.
• US President Trump announced a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and a diesel deal with Russia, sparking criticism from US lawmakers.
• APAC stocks traded mixed amid geopolitical tensions and holiday-thinned trade; US equity futures gained, while European futures point to a positive open.

“The biggest challenge I see for most investors — especially those who only recently got into Korea for the memory chip trade — is that the easy money in that theme has been made”

While investors are being asked to fund the AI rollout, progress in turning that investment into meaningful returns has so far been underwhelming. Those concerns are being echoed across all global markets.

"The recent sharp increase in global interest rates is exposing the unsustainable reality..." 

Hartnett’s “most bullish event” (an October hike) and his “most bearish outcome” (a Democratic sweep) are on the calendar less than a week apart, and the market prices the first at just 17% and the second at 64%. That’s a lot of asymmetry

Every time a tanker hits a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, a Republican incumbent somewhere loses a few tenths of a point... But Goldman shows why Democrats' sweep odds usually fade from here.

Diesel has become the “global” focus, rather than “just” the price of oil.

Police say a 45-year-old man apparently killed eight people, most of them relatives, before taking his own life at an Erie residence.

Somebody is renting Nvidia’s best AI chips from SpaceX at nearly $14 an hour, on leases they can walk away from in 90 days. To earn that back selling AI tokens, they’d need up to $225 billion.

...but a gap can close from either side...

... the barrels everyone watches looked fine, the barrels nobody watches are gone, and the market is now paying near-record fear money on top of a near-empty tank.

The bond market is finally paying investors to be patient. The stock market is still charging full price for impatience...

The problem isn’t just Oracle’s AI data centers that are running late; it’s that the late sites make the one that’s finished harder to refinance...

One big trade is a fine thing to own on the way up. It is also, by definition, a market with one exit...

...the S&P is within a hair of Tuesday's record, and the people paid to own stocks have rarely owned fewer of them...