By day 8 of the conflict, there would be roughly 3.3 mbd of shut‑ins, rising to 3.8 mbd around day 15 and 4.7 mbd by day 18. We are now in day 5... 

“...our world is more dangerous and contested now than it has been in decades.” 

How many more hits can this market take? 

BlackRock TCP slashed the full value of loans it extended to Renovo Home Partners, a struggling home improvement company, from 100 to 0 in three months. 

The 1973 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the Yom Kippur War, has several similarities to today’s conflict with Iran...

Bitcoin ETFs saw modest inflows... but, flows to Treasury ETFs also indicate a lack of concern...

The list of countries announcing deployments – especially to Cyprus – is expanding and now includes France (taking a lead role), the UK, Germany, and Greece. Italy is coordinating but has not confirmed deployment, while the Netherlands is also sending a naval vessel.

"After feedback on the ground from a global marketing tour, I am taking off our tactical bearish equity call from February, as sentiment has materially weakened and the bear camp has become too popular."

Stocks are likely to sell off hard again before the weekend...

...bias remains defensive... but the market does seem somewhat fatigued with caring... may still deteriorate meaningfully…

“If it is blocked for more than a week, the risk of sustained high energy prices would become real. If it is resolved quickly, the economic and financial impact would likely be negligible.”

" ... is the result of our practical achievements and that we are ready to get rid of it, provided we get something good in return." 

‘The Ecuadorian people have witnessed firsthand the terror, violence, and corruption that these narco-terrorists inflict,’ Marine Gen. Francis L. Donovan said.

All is well in the world again. 

...investor sentiment and flows lead us to believe the only way up is down from here.