markets


Government Data Is Garbage: Elon Should Focus On Fixing That Next

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We just learned that there were 2 MILLION more workers last year than previously thought! A big enough number, that if we knew in real-time, would likely have dramatically changed all of the unemployment rate data, but also probably affected monetary policy.


Hartnett: Going Long The BIG Trade

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"Regime-change" Trump 2.0 is determined to make history.

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JM Bullion

"We're Running Hard To Stand Still" - Goldman Hedge Fund Honcho Assembles The Market "Jigsaw Puzzle"

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...the arc of policy should be net supportive of US equities, but the tails are getting fatter.


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Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs next week on many countries; NFP headline shy of exp., u/e rate unexpectedly falls & hot wage metrics; BLS revisions saw a downward revision of 598k (NSA) vs. prelim estimate (released in Aug) of -818k; Trump wants to end trade deficits with Japan & tariffs an option; EU reportedly to offer lower tariffs on US cars to prevent trade war with US; UoM disappoints, with inflation expectations moving higher; Trump says Nippon Steel is looking at an investment in US Steel, not an acquisition; AMZN earnings disappoint; Canada adds more jobs than expected & u/e rate surprisingly falls.

Zerohedge Debates

Top Goldman Trader Warns "Weekends Are Now A Trading Session"

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...the cost to own S&P 'weekend gamma' is 85bps today (almost double the average of last year)...


Auto Stocks On Watch After Report That EU Considering Reducing Tariffs On U.S. Imports

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The move aims to ease tensions over the EU’s trade surplus with the US, a frequent target of Trump.


Bill Ackman Goes Full Bull On Uber, Acquires 30 Million Shares

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"... still be purchased at a massive discount to its intrinsic value."


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USS Intimidator To Panama

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Is the Fuerza Publica de la Republica de Panama going to board a US destroyer when it wants to use the Panama Canal without paying its regular fee? 


What's Keeping Corporate America Up At Night? Three Themes From Earnings Calls 

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"Tariffs were top of mind..." 


Forecasting Error Puts Fed On Wrong Side Again

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Garbage data in, garbage policies out...


January Jobs Growth Below Estimates Amid Massive Revisions Which Trim Unemployment, Reduce Historic Payrolls

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Slowly but surely all the rot from Biden's data fabrication is emerging.


A Yield Bounce On Positive Jobs Data Might Not Last Long

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...a strong print is unlikely to single-handedly alter the macro backdrop.


Goldman "Cautiously Optimistic" On China Tech As DeepSeek Fuels Bullish Bets

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"Tariff reprieve, AI enthusiasm sparked by Deepseek and easy liquidity all contributed to the move." 


"Largest Buy Imbalance In History": Retail Euphoria Breaks All Records, Steamrolling Bearish Hedge Funds

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Retail sentiment score reached 4 on Tuesday, the highest level on record and 1 pt higher than the peak of the meme mania in 2021.


January Payrolls Preview: A Small Drop With Big Revisions

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After some choppy readings in recent months, the pace of payroll additions is expected to ease towards its recent averages, although the market is unsure how to trade a beat or a miss...



AMZN slips 4% after earnings, RBI cuts 25bps as expected; US NFP ahead - Newsquawk Europe Market Open

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APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where price action was choppy amid soft data and as participants looked ahead to the latest key US jobs report.

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Data releases were soft as initial jobless claims rose slightly more than anticipated and Unit Labour Cost was cooler than expected.

Amazon Reverses 7% After Hours Plunge Despite Cloud Miss, Ugly Guidance

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The BTFD army has been unleashed after hours and has reversed what was a 7% drop into an unchanged print.


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US Unit Labour Costs ease, Claims rise above forecast, US Layoffs rise in Jan.; Trump looks set to meet Putin, says they are making good progress on Ukraine war; US announces fresh Iran oil sanctions; Bessent maintains low interest rates agenda; BoE cuts 25bps, Mann flips to dove; Hawkish BoJ commentary from Tamura; UK PM to reportedly axe Chancellor Reeves; HON to split into three companies; Strong Maersk earnings, Stellar LLY earnings.