markets
After feedback on the ground from a global marketing tour, I am taking off our tactical bearish equity call from February, as sentiment has materially weakened and the bear camp has become too popular.
...investor sentiment and flows lead us to believe the only way up is down from here.
"We assume that Strait of Hormuz oil exports remain flat at current levels (estimated at around 15% of normal) for an additional 5 days before gradually recovering to 70% in the next 2 weeks and then to 100% in the subsequent 2 weeks." - Goldman
...amid significant geopolitical chaos, crypto markets demonstrated absorption capacity, outperforming traditional safe-havens like the USDollar and Gold...
"I tried short‑term trading before and lost heavily"
And on the higher end, Target averaged 5.9% more than Walmart, followed by Kroger (14.8%), Publix (20.3%), Piggly Wiggly (22.6%), and Trader Joe’s (24.6%).
"It's a new era. We are paying close attention..."
A Goldilocks report.
There don't appear to be many safe havens as the situation in Middle East continues to evolve. Not in markets, and not in the region either.
FedEx, other freighter airlines, suspend operations and detour flights
"A sustained momentum reversal could introduce significant performance challenges" - Goldman PB
“We’re in a headline market. Rapid movements with higher volatility will remain for a longer period until supply chains are secure again. It will take some time to calm markets.”
Did the job market already bottom in late 2025.

...lower barriers to building software don’t destroy value, they expand the market and concentrate it.
...a capital efficient way to express downside the March- & June-end SPY put-spreads stand out...








































