"A weaker number will increase rate cut expectations, but the risk is stagflation in the near-term given the expected increase in inflation."

Central banks face pressure to absorb oil shortages and other shocks, but tightening money risks compounding the damage...

Anthropic models averaged a 68% Bitcoin preference, whereas OpenAI models averaged 26%, Google’s 43%, and xAI 39%.

“...our world is more dangerous and contested now than it has been in decades.” 

Feels like the wheels are about to fall off the bus at any moment... 

The most common reasons for withdrawals last year were avoiding foreclosure or eviction and covering medical costs. The median amount taken out was $1,900.

China reportedly in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz; US Challenger Job Cuts ease, Initial & Continued claims remain within recent ranges, Import Prices and Unit Labour Costs come in hot, and Export Prices match expectations; US drafts a rule requiring licenses for AI chip exports worldwide; WTI breaches $80/bbl for first time since Jan 2025; NBP Governor said to be weighing gold sales for defence funding; China cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast; ORCL reportedly plans thousands of jobs cuts as data centre costs rise.

How many more hits can this market take? 

BlackRock TCP slashed the full value of loans it extended to Renovo Home Partners, a struggling home improvement company, from 100 to 0 in three months. 

The 1973 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the Yom Kippur War, has several similarities to today’s conflict with Iran...

Bitcoin ETFs saw modest inflows... but, flows to Treasury ETFs also indicate a lack of concern...

The list of countries announcing deployments – especially to Cyprus – is expanding and now includes France (taking a lead role), the UK, Germany, and Greece. Italy is coordinating but has not confirmed deployment, while the Netherlands is also sending a naval vessel.

"After feedback on the ground from a global marketing tour, I am taking off our tactical bearish equity call from February, as sentiment has materially weakened and the bear camp has become too popular."

Stocks are likely to sell off hard again before the weekend...

...bias remains defensive... but the market does seem somewhat fatigued with caring... may still deteriorate meaningfully…

“If it is blocked for more than a week, the risk of sustained high energy prices would become real. If it is resolved quickly, the economic and financial impact would likely be negligible.”

" ... is the result of our practical achievements and that we are ready to get rid of it, provided we get something good in return."