markets


OpenAI Faces $140 Billion In Losses Before It Turns $1 In Profit

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No start-up in history has operated with expected losses on anything approaching this scale. We are firmly in uncharted territory.


European equities to open with modest gains; US senators propose blocking NVDA's Blackwell chips to China - Newsquawk EU Market Open

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APAC stocks were mixed, with the regional bourses mostly rangebound, amid light fresh catalysts ahead of US PCE data.

US stocks were mixed with a slight positive bias and yields climbed following encouraging labour market metrics - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Initial and Continued Claims printed beneath analysts’ forecast range, with the former at the lowest since September 2022.

Connecticut Orders Robinhood, Crypto.com, & Kalshi To Stop Prediction Markets

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...claiming the platforms' event contracts are unlicensed sports betting.


Super-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring; Bonds & Bitcoin Dip On 'Good' Data

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...so far Momentum is not living up to the seasonality worries in December...


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Stocks mixed and bonds sold on encouraging labour market data - Newsquawk US Market Wrap

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US initial and continued claims drop more than expected; US Factory Orders miss expectations; BoJ sources point towards a likely hike in Dec., govt reportedly not to attempt to intervene; US issues travel alert to Venezuela; META CEO expected to cut metaverse resources meaningfully; Trump admin to discuss whether to give NVDA license to export H200 to China.

Where Would The Market Be If ChatGPT Wasn't Invented?

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Given what has transpired over the past 3 years, the biggest tail risk for global markets over the next 12 months may be AI spending...


Model Collapse: The Entire Bubble Economy Is A Hallucination

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The conclusion that soaring asset prices mean the economy is strong is a hallucination that goes unrecognized because the entire financial system is hallucinating...


Rate Vol Is Too Sleepy Given Macro Catalysts Ahead

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That low-vol regime now rests on a narrow, and increasingly unlikely, combination of growth, inflation and policy all staying intact...


Dollar General Soars Most In Six Months As Cash-Strapped Consumers Flock To Value

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"This is another "strong beat and raise" from Dollar General, with gross margin outperformance..." 


In Case Of Emergency Break Rules

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...many more rules are going to be broken; either that or comfortable delusions will be...


US Durable Goods Orders Solid In September

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...orders rose for the 6th straight month.


Meta Shares Jump After Zuckerberg Prepares Deep Cuts To Metaverse Following Epic Flop

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"The proposed metaverse cuts are part of the company's annual budget planning for 2026, which..." 


Stocks Will Fly If New Fed Chair Follows Greenspan

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The parallels with today are pretty obvious...


Futures Rise, S&P Set For 8th Gain In 9 Days

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"Retail momentum stocks and crypto are still way below the recent peaks, though both have recovered from the recent lows"


Clear That 'Something Behind The Scenes Is Breaking' Holter Warns, We're Headed For A Derivative Meltdown

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"Once you get a failure to deliver, you will get a Mad Max scenario..."


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European Carmakers Surge After Trump Rolls Back Fuel Rules

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Porsche shares were up more than 5%, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo Car gained nearly 4%, Renault rose 3.3%, and Stellantis climbed around 2.7% after an 8% rally the previous day.


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European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though European news flow has been light. 

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The Trump admin is reportedly preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.

China's Real Estate Collapse Sends Local Debt To Record $18.9 Trillion

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The finances of local governments are being supported by monetary easing on the part of the People's Bank of China in an effort to prop up the sluggish economy.