Six months ago we explained why the neocons hate Donald Trump and with his meteroric rise that dislike has only grown stronger and more desperate (and we suspect Trump's view of the hawkish warmongers has risen right alongside it). In fact, as The Hill reports, the rise of Donald Trump is threatening the power of neoconservatives, who find themselves at risk of being marginalized in the Republican Party. Whereas neoconservatism advocates spreading American ideals through the use of military force, Trump has made the case for nationalism and a smaller U.S. military footprint. Trump, for all his contradictions, gives voice to the “isolationist” populism that neocon confederates despise, and which is implanted so deeply in the American consciousness. Why us? Why are we paying everybody’s bills? Why are we fighting everybody else’s wars? It’s a bad deal! And that is why neocons hate The Donald.
Unfortunately, for Mr. Rosengren, since the average American was never allowed to actually deleverage following the financial crisis, and still living well beyond their means, economic growth will remain mired at lower levels as savings continue to be diverted from productive investment into debt service. The issue, of course, is not just a central theme to the U.S. but to the global economy as well. After seven years of excessive monetary interventions, global debt levels have yet to be resolved. If the Fed does proceed in hiking rates in the current environment, it will likely be a “policy error” which will be regretted in the not too distant future as debt service costs rise thereby further reducing consumers ability to “consume.”
"That will precede a more general splintering to come of the republic, first by demographics, then by territory. The most exceptional thing about the US has been the rapidity of its rise and now fall in the roll-call of empires. We barely had time to put together a coherent culture that historians of the future (enjoying ratatouille with fresh rat by firelight) could identify, and now it’s all percolating into a dreadful maelstrom in which one catches glimpses of the Kardashians, PT Barnum, Betsy Ross, Davey Crockett, and Eleanor Roosevelt amid the detritus of broken Tupperware and flapping pages of the Affordable Care Act. What a goddamned mess we’ve left to posterity."
Today we got confirmation how much of an uphill climb the Temer administration will have when Brazil's Folha de S. Paulo newspaper reported that it has had access to recordings of conversations that took place in March between then-senator Romero Juca and current minister, and a former executive linked to state-run oil company Petrobras. In the conversations, the minister allegedly says a change in federal government leadership would lead to an agreement to prevent the wide corruption probe dubbed Carwash from proceeding.
The errors of Keynes have empowered sociopathic political classes all over the world and deprived the world of the economic progress we would otherwise have enjoyed. No amount of stimulus ever seems to be quite enough. And when the stimulus fails, the blinkered Keynesian establishment can only think to double down, never to question the policy itself. The Keynesians are pretending they have everything under control, but we know that’s a fantasy. Simply put, "Keynes must die so the economy may live."
A month after admitting to rigging precious metals markets, Deutsche Bank has been hit with a double-whammy of more alleged fraudulent behavior today and the stock is sliding. First, Reuters reports that the bank took a charge of 450 million euros for "equity trading fraud," and then Bloomberg reports that The SEC is looking into Deutsche's post-crisis mortgage positions.
"Everyday we read headlines on what the central banks are doing. But their policies don’t have any effect. They are just like treading water. All the central banks are doing is substituting one form of debt with another form of debt... I think it means the business of central banks is like pornography: It’s not the real thing."
Baltimore police officer Edward Nero was acquitted on moments ago of all charges in the 2015 death of black detainee Freddie Gray, an incident that triggered rioting and protests and fueled the Black Lives Matter movement.
In a one-two punch that will likely only end up boosting Trump's approval rating as has been the case every time a member of the establishment, especially one as disgraced as Anthony Wiener, disparages the presumptive republican presidential nominee, yesterday morning Former Rep. Anthony Weiner also known as Carlos Danger, took a page from comedian Jon Stewart’s joke book, when the husband of Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin lashed out at Donald Trump calling the presumptive Republican presidential nominee "Fuckface Von Clownstick."
Many “unicorns” have ceased to be race-worthy a long time ago, but the narrative has been desperately held up reminiscent of a Potemkin village for these last 18 months or more with hopes, prayers, and breathtaking fairy-tales bordering on outright fraud in hopes that maybe, just maybe, they’ll make it to an IPO and shed all that dead weight of having to holdup this house-of-cards pretension any longer. It’s quite possible not only is that race never going to restart.
After yesterday's presidential run-off round, the leader of Austria's anti-immigration, right-wing party, Norbert Hofer held a comfortable lead based on votes from the ground, with Hofer leading the independent, pro-EU candidate Van der Bellen by 51.9% to 48.1%, according to interior ministry data. However, in the end it all came down to the postal votes, and as BBC reports, the Green Party leader, Alexander Van der Bellen has won Austria's presidential election, preventing Norbert Hofer from becoming the EU's first far-right head of state, the BBC has been told.
In the aftermath of the Panama Papers revelations, US authorities including the IRS appear to have begun a crackdown on tax evaders (if staying away from Washington D.C. for the time being for obvious reason), and according to Bloomberg they just landed a juicy target in the face of Morris Zukerman, a former head of Morgan Stanley’s energy group who now runs a private investment firm, who was indicted in Manhattan on charges of evading more than $45 million of federal and New York state taxes.
The last few weeks have seen 'Project Fear' taken to all new levels by the UK establishment as doom-mongering over a possible Brexit conjure images of post-apocalyptic movies. UK PM Cameron and Chanceller Osborne's latest op-ed tirade warns of 800,000 jobs lost and an "immediate year-long recession" if the Brits exercise their democratic right to vote for sovereignty over tyranny. Judging from the polls, which show Brexit odds tumbling, the fear-mongery is working, however, the markets disagree as forward volatility measures near 2016 highs.
One reality in the markets is that despite the best efforts of analysts and traders, no one ever knows with any degree of certainty what will happen to the price of an investment in the future. Oil exemplifies that premise right now. All year there has been a tremendous amount of discrepancy in predictions for oil prices with some commentators looking for prices of $10 a barrel and others expecting prices near $100.
Some were concerned earlier today, when SF Fed's John Williams said that he sees about 2-3 rate hikes in 2016, followed by another 3-4 in 2017, suggesting a grand total between 5 and 7 more rate hikes over the next 18 months. However, those fears were promptly dissiptated when as Williams himself admitted during the reporter Q&A, he - like virtually everyone else at the Fed - has no idea what he is talking about.
So much for the huge China credit impulse spreading around the world. After this morning's extremely disappointing European data, US Manufacturing's flash PMI for May printed a disappointing 50.5 - its lowest since 2009.Under the surface the state of American manufacturing is even more disastrous as Markit notes, output is falling for the first time since the height of the global financial crisis, with factories hit by slowing growth of order books and falling exports.