Urea up 70%... Phosphate up 23%... Oil up 57%

Ineffable Intelligence is betting that reinforcement learning is the path to superintelligence, rather than AI's large language models.

Polymarket: Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? Odds hit 77%. 

A "complete set of automated equipment"

"OECD commercial stocks could fall to these operational floors by September if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, assuming demand destruction stabilizes at 5.5 mbd"

“If we don’t get supply reestablished, demand will have to come down across different sectors of the economy. That’s the big concern that everybody has as we try to avoid a scenario where that becomes extreme.”

Silver: A small push higher… and this goes from quiet to crowded fast.

Oracle shares moved higher on the news. 

Alaska, added the most mortgage debt during that time frame, in percentage terms...

Sigh. 

Three Fed officials - Beth Hammack, Lori Logan and Neel Kashkari - said they dissented over this week’s policy statement because it was no longer appropriate to signal the Fed’s next move was still likely to be a rate cut.

Under the US economy's otherwise solid surface, the stagflationary pressures are getting louder with every passing month.; 

"Multiple warnings have been issued, and the situation remains highly fluid – meaning the landscape could shift markedly over the coming days. Warnings are out."

The oil market has one buffer left: inventories. And it’s being eroded.

A total of $350 million in Medicaid dollars that Minnesota expected has now been frozen, administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz said...

"Primary issues were unexpectedly negative impacts from age check rollout..." 

“Oil prices remaining above $110 per barrel though are a reminder of the stakes for the global economy and the fact that there looks no path to the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the near term"

You don’t need a catalyst. You need asymmetry. And right now, it’s in vol.