Hope And Reality

The data highlight the conundrum for the ECB. Price pressures are of clear concern, but weak activity data question whether the ECB needs to hike rates as much as markets have been expecting to rein back demand in the face of the supply shock.

The Calm Before The Volatility Storm

Markets are behaving as if volatility has been abolished. Meanwhile, bond vol is exploding, implied correlations remain depressed, and VIX is approaching what increasingly looks like a natural floor.

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